90% of Irish CEO’s believe Ireland’s economy will grow in 2012
Dublin, 3rd November 2011 – Property consultants CBRE today released their 14th annual survey of the Top 1,000 CEO’s in Ireland. Encouragingly, 90% of the respondents to CBRE’s annual survey believe that the Irish economy will grow in 2012. The largest proportion of respondents (47%) believe that the economy will grow by up to 1% next year while a further 43% are more optimistic, believing that a growth rate of between 1% and 2% is achievable. Only 1% of the Top 1,000 chief executives who responded to CBRE’s survey believe that growth of more than 3% will be achieved in the Irish economy in 2012. 8% of respondents expect the Irish economy to decline next year.
A full copy of the CBRE Research|CEO Survey 2012 is available to download at the PDF file link below.
46% of respondents expect Eurozone base interest rates to fall slightly in 2012 while 38% believe Eurozone rates will remain at current levels. Only 15% of respondents expect interest rates in the Eurozone to increase next year. In contrast, almost two thirds of Ireland’s chief executives believe that UK base interest rates will remain at current levels in 2012 while 70% expect US base interest rates to remain stable at current levels next year.
There is little expectation of an improvement in bank funding next year. In fact, only 35% of respondents to CBRE’s annual survey believe that the availability of bank funding for businesses and households will rise next year. All of those who expect the availability of bank funding to improve next year expect only a slight improvement to occur. 49% of respondents expect bank lending to remain at current levels in 2012 while 16% expect bank funding to deteriorate further next year.
When asked what factor had the most negative impact on Irish economic performance in 2011, 52% of respondents identified ‘the domestic banking crisis’ as the single biggest negative influence, while 27% of respondents identified ‘uncertainty within the Eurozone’ and a further 20% identified ‘Irish Government finances’ as being the biggest influencers on economic performance in 2011.
Compared with 12 months ago, 44% of Irish chief executives said they are more optimistic about Irish economic prospects in the short to medium term. A further 36% of respondents said they are neither more optimistic nor more negative than they were 12 months ago. Encouragingly, almost 80% of respondents say they expect Ireland Inc. to be viewed more favourably in 12 months time from an International perspective.
Almost 85% of respondents to the CEO survey cited bank deposits as their number one preferred investment choice in the current climate. In fact, 86% of respondents said they were more favourable towards bank deposits compared to last year. Other than bank deposits, investors were less favourable to other forms of investment compared to this time last year. Indeed, 57% of the Irish CEO’s who responded to this years survey said they were less favourably disposed towards equities than they were 12 months ago. Above 74% of respondents said they were less favourable towards both commercial and residential property in Ireland than they were 12 months ago.
More than half of respondents (52%) expect residential property values in Ireland to fall slightly over the course of the next three years. A further 20% of respondents expect residential property values to remain stable at current levels over the next 3 years while 24% of CEO’s expect a slight increase in residential property values in the period. Only 4% of respondents expect residential property values to decrease significantly compared to 15% at this time last year.
33% of respondents expect Irish commercial property values to decrease slightly over the next three years with 29% saying they expect commercial property values in Ireland to remain the same over the next three year timeframe. 27% are forecasting a slight increase in commercial property values in Ireland over the same period, while 11% expect commercial property values to decrease significantly over the next 3 years. When asked what sector of the commercial property market they expected to perform best over the next three years, over 40% of Irish chief executives identified office property in Dublin as having the best prospects while the retail market was tipped to outperform other sectors by almost 29% of respondents. A further 15% of Irish CEO’s selected industrial property in the capital as the most likely to outperform in the time period.
According to Marie Hunt, Director of Research at CBRE in Dublin, “The issues that Irish chief executives deemed to be the most critical to be addressed by Government over the next 3 years include restoring Government finances, creating jobs, reducing unemployment and retaining competitiveness. There is no doubt therefore that all of the chief executives will be awaiting the publication tomorrow of the Government’s medium term fiscal plan”.
31% of the chief executives who responded to this survey said their staff numbers will remain the same in 2012. Encouragingly, 39% of respondents expect to increase their staff numbers next year. However, 30% of respondents expect to be reducing their staff numbers in 2012.
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CONTACT: Marie Hunt – 00 353 1 6185543 / 00 353 87 2727115 or firstname.lastname@example.org
About CBRE Group, Inc.
CBRE Group, Inc. (NYSE:CBG), a Fortune 500 and S&P 500 company headquartered in Los Angeles, is the world’s largest commercial real estate services firm (in terms of 2010 revenue). The Company has approximately 31,000 employees (excluding affiliates), and serves real estate owners, investors and occupiers through more than 300 offices (excluding affiliates) worldwide. CBRE offers strategic advice and execution for property sales and leasing; corporate services; property, facilities and project management; mortgage banking; appraisal and valuation; development services; investment management; and research and consulting. Please visit our website at www.cbre.com.
In Ireland, with offices in Dublin and Belfast, CB Richard Ellis is the country’s largest commercial real estate services company, now employing over 120 employees and offering a full range of property services including property sales and acquisitions, leasing and management, investment, corporate services, project management, consultancy, valuations and research. CB Richard Ellis Ireland has been listed among the Top 100 Best Workplaces in Europe & the Top 50 In Ireland 2011, for the seventh year running. Please visit our website at www.cbre.ie or www.cbre.ie/ni.